At the beginning of this month, Tim Sweeney spoke at the Unreal Fest in Seattle during their welcoming ceremony. The Unreal Fest was home to a lot of keynotes and showcases from many different Unreal Engine developers around the world. But one bit from Tim Sweeney that took the internet by storm was, following the confirmation that Fortnite reached an all-new peak of 110 million monthly actively players, and I quote:
This is all happening in a game business that is rapidly changing. In a way that we have only seen a few times in our lifetime as game developers. It’s a generational change, and one of the manifestations we’re seeing is right now, a lot of games are being released with high budgets, and they are not selling nearly as well as expected. Where other games are going incredibly strong.
After one of the strongest years of video game releases in 2023. 2024 has only a few success stories so far. With the rest being either middling, normal or outright disastrous. What Tim said above about the generational change actually has some weight to it.
Successes, Failures, and Ambiguity
In this year alone, games such as Palworld reached 15 million copies sold, with Helldivers 2 enlisting 12 million players, and Black Myth: Wukong selling a grand total of 18 million copies. No matter the circumstances, these three games make up the bulk of the success stories. This is unfortunate considering there have been many other big game releases that only sold a mere fraction of what these three pulled off.
Titles such as Stellar Blade, Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth, Persona 3 Reload, and more recently Metaphor: ReFantazio and Silent Hill only having a reported one million copies sold individually. These are great numbers in the grand scheme of things. But considering the level of hype, and brand associations with these games. Only being able to celebrate one million copies is as Tim said above, not nearly as well as some people would expect.
Then certain games within the last few months were supposed to be big games. But sadly, did not have the numbers to back them up. Games like Astro Bot not having a concrete number for copies sold is concerning. While Concord selling only 25,000 copies before being taken offline in 2 weeks is disastrous in comparison. But what eats at me, even more, is when I see free-to-play games that can be treated as similar single-player experiences, pull-in player bases like the top sellers of this year. Most notably, MiHoyo’s titles.
The Consistent Free-to-Play Dominance
While two of three of the biggest games of this year were multiplayer experiences. Black Myth: Wukong being the highest seller among them all does prove that people do still want non-multiplayer experiences. Not every game can be a Fortnite in terms of player numbers. But when you look at the Hoyoverse, between games like Genshin Impact, Honkai: Star Rail, and recently, Zenless Zone Zero. You can find player counts above 50 million for each game.
Needless to say, but every developer would love to have those kinds of numbers to flaunt. Genshin Impact is a massive open-world RPG that still pulls in countless players despite an ongoing discussion regarding “open-world fatigue”. Honkai: Star Rail shines as a turn-based RPG when a JRPG company like Square Enix has been trying to pivot to more action with their iconic Final Fantasy series. While Zenless Zone Zero pushes for the rule of cool and has the combat and mission structure to back up a mechanically deep action game without boring the player.
In a year where most games that come out from big publishers that have massive budgets and cannot consistently match the kind of numbers, free-to-play games pull off with one release collectively. One can go back to what Tim Sweeney talked about with the generational change in mind and come to a conclusion.
Slow Phase Out of Tradition
The conclusion I have drawn is that the fact that the traditional non-free-to-play model can still work, but it’s inconsistent. However, considering the player numbers free-to-play games can bring in consistently, and the ensuing profits from that player base? We are definitely seeing a phase-out, and for a lot of long-time gamers, it’s a scary thought. But there will always be a place for that traditional model.
For instance, when it comes to the traditional gaming space. You have your high-end game consoles, like the PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series. With gaming on PC becoming more and more popular, year over year. But when it comes to the Nintendo Switch, it is the most modern bridge of the traditional console. Considering it not only allows people to game on the go like you would a mobile phone. You can also still use it as a normal console that hooks up to the television.
The free-to-play market, similarly, is the bridge between non-conventionalism and traditional experiences. Especially with the games MiHoyo creates. Taking the newer monetization models the current generation of gamers have become accustomed to. While rolling them into those traditional experiences that most companies have upfront costs to even try and considering some console storefronts do not have a proper refund policy, it causes people to be timid with their purchase decisions.
Tim Sweeney is actually right on the money with what he said. Not every free-to-play game will be successful like Fortnite, or MiHoyo’s games. But in that same sense, not every full-priced game will sell like a Hogwarts Legacy from last year, or Elden Ring before it, and definitely not Black Myth: Wukong. There will be more misses, and fewer hits as time marches onward, and that is definitely not a bright future.
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